Where Did COVID Go? Tracking a Pandemic in Disguise

A snippet from History

Coronaviruses have been with us for quite some time now.

No! I am not talking about the COVID- 19, I am talking about much before then.

Coronavirus was first discovered in the mid-1960s, and it was speculated that this family of viruses has been residing with the human population for centuries, if not millennia. So far, we have known four variants of coronaviruses: alpha, beta, gamma, and delta. Most of them are known to cause mild respiratory infections. They are among the viruses that cause the flu/common cold. However, the beta variants (like HKU1, SARS-CoV-1, SARS-CoV-2) have caused gastrointestinal symptoms throughout history. The beta variants are known to cause epidemics.

For instance, the first pandemic of the 21st century was caused by one variant of coronavirus called Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus. The outbreak was first identified in November 2002 in China and subsequently spread to 29 other countries. Four months later, in February of 2003, the pathogen causing the disease was identified as SARS-CoV (later renamed to SARS-CoV-1 to differentiate from COVID-19). It mostly affected previously healthy adults aged 25-70 years. There was a total of 8422 cases and 916 fatalities. After an unprecedented global public health effort, the epidemic was controlled in 7 months.

In April of 2012, another coronavirus variant was identified in Saudi Arabia. It caused a pandemic involving 27 countries in the Middle East, causing 858 known deaths. The virus was transferred to humans from infected dromedary camels. Human-to-human transmission was possible, but not a major means of transmission (unless in health care settings and enclosed spaces). Though it was successfully controlled in subsequent years, the pandemic still lingered behind the scenes. For instance the largest known outbreak of MERS was reported 3 years later in 2015 in Korea from a person travelling from the Arabian Peninsula.

A few years later, on December 31, 2019, an outbreak was reported in Wuhan, China. Similarly, this variant caused a severe respiratory syndrome. It was declared a pandemic on March 11, when the 118,319 infections and 4292 deaths had been reported in 113 countries. By the end of May 2020, the pandemic had caused more than 350,000 deaths worldwide. It was so significant that it permanently changed our way of life, scarred the world economy, and altered our perspectives. This new human pathogen is a beta corona variant, lately named Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). It is famously known as COVID-19.

You know the story after this …..

Countries managed to control it after a hard-fought battle, and now, the news of it has faded into a distant memory tucked away in the back of our minds.

But has it truly disappeared as the majority of the population believes? Or has it merely slipped beneath our collective radar?

The Silent Persistence

Due to the success of these collaborative efforts by many countries, the battle was declared won. The World Health Organization ceased updating global COVID-19 statistics in April 2024, citing the unfeasibility of providing accurate totals as many countries, including Ethiopia, reduced reporting. As of March 2025, Ethiopia has reported around half a million confirmed COVID-19 cases and 7,574 deaths. But the numbers have plateaued, and reporting has nearly stopped.

Though that is the case, the virus hasn't vanished. Instead, it's become less visible, overshadowed by other pressing health crises. This lack of data doesn`t indicate the end of the pandemic, but highlights the shift in focus and resources. The absence of regular updates and visible reminders has led to a perception that the pandemic is over. However, this complacency can be dangerous, as the virus continues to pose risks, especially to vulnerable populations.

Public attention has also shifted as the threat receded. For instance, the resurgence of malaria, cholera, and HIV in Ethiopia is a pressing concern, as well as the persistent conflicts that are erupting all over the country. This has diverted our focus from COVID-19. Moreover, most people are not well adept with medical knowledge, so a victory against such a pandemic is taken as eradication. However, that is not the case. The virus will reside somewhere, in somebody, disguised as flu or another illness, or in its host. It will keep on infecting us until we develop the means to remove it completely from nature.

So, as the world takes its focus to strengthen its health infrastructure, rebuild its economy in the aftermath, COVID-19 keeps spreading in the back. Consider it like the Cold War, where the world war has ended, but the battle has continued in the comfort of peace. The infection rate and the death toll will not be as acute as it was, but there will be some here and there that will cumulate over the years to be much higher than so far reported.

But, the good news is that most of the world has been vaccinated. Many will be vaccinated as years go on. Those who were not vaccinated might develop immunity or fall ill and recover. This gives an edge to the unsuspecting public who contract the disease unkowingly. But there will be losses.

There will be an old woman with poorly controlled diabetes who contracts what’s assumed to be the flu or a respiratory illness. It will be mistakenly managed in the standard way, and she will die from what’s perceived as diabetes-related complications. There will be a young person with a weakened immune system who dies within days from an unexplained illness. Cases like these will appear here and there. Health officials will overlook it, physicians will fail to diagnose it (as it doesn`t fall within the known epidemiology), patients will treat it like simple flu.

Could the recent wave of flu-like symptoms affecting Addis Ababa and various regional states be related?

Some healthcare professionals have observed that these cases were not responding to the usual treatments, with some patients even requiring hospitalization. What are your thought on this?

So moving forward, the question shouldn`t be "Where did COVID go?" but also "How do we ensure it doesn't return with greater force?". Public Health professionals should continue public education, equitable vaccine distribution, and sustained preventive practices. Engaging community leaders, leveraging local media, and addressing misinformation can further help these efforts.

Concluding Remarks

COVID-19 may no longer dominate headlines, but it hasn't disappeared. It's become a silent presence, its threat diminished but not eliminated. As Ethiopia navigates other health challenges, it's crucial to maintain awareness and preparedness.

As individuals, you have to be vigilant of your symptoms. If you have significant respiratory symptoms, please take the same level of precaution as you used for COVID-19. You also need to be prompt in seeking treatment. If you have concurrent gastrointestinal symptoms, don`t be hesitant to visit a health institution.

The pandemic's legacy reminds us of the importance of robust healthcare systems, accurate information dissemination, and community engagement. Only by acknowledging COVID-19's ongoing presence can we ensure that we're not caught unprepared for its potential resurgence.